THE PRICE OF INDEPENDENCE
Paper Elioth Sanabria Jose Blanchet
01

(DRO) Worst-case allocation

Positioning the fleet…

02

(DRRO) Regret-robust allocation

Positioning the fleet…

NEW ORDERS · LAST 12 MIN
0 west0 center0 east
01 / BUSINESS AS USUAL

Before the storm.

Clear skies08:00
100%
Delivered0 / 0
Waiting0
On time
Delivered0 / 0
Waiting0
On time
Preparing the city
Same city. Same six vehicles. Different preparation.
THREE FIXED DEPOTS · SIX VEHICLES · DIFFERENT SPLITS
·

Allocate before you know.

The warehouse locations are fixed and identical in both panels. The decision is how many of the six vehicles to station at each of the three depots before orders arrive. Both sides use the same road network, vehicles, arrival times, deadlines, and dispatch rule. The signs above each warehouse show its vehicle count. Each delivery requires a return to its assigned depot. Floating numbers show outstanding requests at each stop; a plus sign marks a recent arrival, and red means at least one request is overdue.

Average allocation (SAA)

Minimizes expected delay under the nominal forecast: 85% clear days, 5% eastern storms, 10% western storms.

Worst-case allocation (DRO)

Minimizes worst-case expected total cost over every probability law within L1 distance 0.30 of the nominal — at most 0.15 of mass moved.

Regret-robust allocation (DRRO)

Minimizes worst-case expected excess delay over the best fixed split under the same law — the part of the loss a different split could have avoided.

minplan max‖p − p₀‖₁ ≤ 0.3 [ expected delay cost − best attainable expected cost ]

The storm slows the bridges and shifts orders toward one region. Vehicle positions remain fixed; neither dispatcher sees future orders. The right-hand result is not guaranteed to win every weather scenario.

Model and computed plan scores

This is a constructed, deterministic illustration—not a calibrated logistics model or empirical validation. One playback second represents one operating minute. Each order has a 14-minute deadline. Cost accumulates one unit per minute of waiting plus four per minute overdue, including undelivered orders.